Sampras Analyses The Top Four's Chances

The Wimbledon draw is out but before discussing that it’s worth checking out what my main man, Pete, had to say about the chances of the top 4 at this year’s tournament.

It’s worth noting that Pete’s comments in general since his retirement about the state of the game have largely mirrored the views of the creators of this blog, apart from his initial, and what many would describe as a “sore” reaction to Roger Federer’s dominance in the game. It was his view early on that Roger dominated in an era that was relatively weaker than his, in that while everyone was fitter, stronger and faster, and generally excellent tennis players, very few were actual champions. One could provide counter arguments such as the fact that even in his era, his period of domination by and large coincided with the decline of the champions of his time. Edberg was on his way out and even beat Sampras in a heartbreaking loss at the 1992 US Open before Sampras began his domination. Courier did not win another major after Sampras won his second, owning four (two Australian, two French) until then. Boris Becker too, struggled to hit the form he maintained through the late 80s and early 90s. Michael Chang never won a major after his first French.

His one competitor, Andre Agassi, was extremely inconsistent in terms of true dominance, and injuries mixed with an internal struggle to try and explain to himself what exactly the game should mean to him put the brakes on what could have been a rivalry as classic as Federer-Nadal.

But a lot of Sampras’ recent comments have struck a chord with us, on how players today are less capable at really going after points and more interested in staying in them (paraphrasing). Tennis today is becoming more and more about being able to run down balls, decreasing pure tennis “skill” levels but increasing levels of endurance to previously impossible proportions. And unfortunately, more and more, the ability to do the latter is being equated with real championship material and excellent tennis, as opposed to being able to take initiative early. A million other factors are responsible for this, such as an apparent decrease in court speeds and the much talked about changes in racquet technology, which only cements it in the minds of up and coming players and coaches that innate skills are not enough and they have to reach an almost insane level of fitness to stay in the top 10. Gone are the days when a break of serve at the end of a set on grass was the mark of a champion.


As a grass court player, Sampras’ approach to an opponent’s return game was vastly different from Federer’s. Sampras would take huge cuts on the return, having complete faith in his own serve, which either worked in that he’d get a single break a set, or it went to a TB where Sampras’s second serve was unparalleled.  Federer, on the other hand, being more of an aggressive baseliner than a serve and volleyer or a chip ‘n charger, grinds out service games waiting for mistakes, getting many break point opportunities until he breaks through. And it worked well for him until he met a certain Spanish southpaw who refused to allow him to convert them since the serve constantly moved away from him either too low or too high in the direction of his backhand, adding increased pressure on Federer’s service games.

It is with this in mind that I hope Federer approaches Wimbledon this year. While nobody expects him to go ballistic on return games, perhaps a little more faith in his own ability and feel on this surface would serve him well, unlike his finals against Nadal in ’07 and ’08, or even against Roddick in ’09, where it took an imperial serving performance to get his 15^th major. This is Roger’s first Wimbledon with Annacone (who coached Pete through the majority of those Wimbledon titles) on his side, and we expect him to, if not literally follow in his footsteps, at least take a leaf out of the Sampras book on returning on grass. Roger’s approach to the clay at Roland Garros, where he hardly hit the same ball twice in a rally, should give Federer fans plenty of encouragement in terms of their hero’s chances. That and a good first serve percentage should see him through to the title, whoever he meets in the final.

With all that said, Pete’s comments on the top four players at SW19:

ON FEDERER

 "When Wimbledon comes around, you have to put Roger as the man to beat on that surface. He played extremely well in the French Open final and lost to one of the greats of all time on clay. I see him oozing with confidence.

"I see different things, especially in the final of the French, that Roger is trying to do -- be a little more aggressive, take the ball earlier, which is obviously tougher to do against Rafa on clay. And I like what I see. He wants to improve, and he still enjoys it. I think Paul has helped him with the mental side, just talking about strategy. Paul knows what it's like, he knows what a great player goes through, and it's really helped Roger in my mind."

ON NADAL

"Whenever Wimbledon comes around and you look at Rafa's game, you might find him a little bit vulnerable. But year in, year out, he comes out with great results. He beats the guys he should, and before you know it, he's in the second week playing great. He saw what he had to do a couple of years back to play well at Wimbledon, and he's improved those areas.

"He's a machine. He feels he has to put in the time ahead of Wimbledon, and I respect that, but there's a part of you that has to give the mind and body a break. It might be a blessing in disguise he went down early [at Queen's], just to regroup and enjoy Paris a little bit. He's just one of those athletes that come once every 25 years. He keeps going and going. I hope that Rafa, as he gets older, is aware of his schedule and body. That's the only thing that can hold him back."

ON DJOKOVIC

"It's incredible what he's been able to do, be so consistent. Mentally he's figured it out, really shown great improvement. I think now he has an aura about him. He's turned into a great player.

"If you look at the history of the game, when I broke through and started to dominate, and Roger, we were about 23. Novak won that early major in 2008; it takes you a few years to figure out how you need to play, who you're playing against and to be really comfortable in your own skin, and I think Novak has turned the corner. With his game and athletic ability, I'm not surprised he's right there. When you break down his game, he doesn't have any holes."

ON COMPARISONS BETWEEN DJOKOVIC AND AGASSI AS RETURNERS

"It's hard to say who has a better return because pretty much the style of play is one-dimensional today. When I was playing, you had a lot of different looks. If he was up against a Goran [Ivanisevic], [Stefan] Edberg or [Boris] Becker consistently, you could really get a sense of how well he returns.

"But he's a great returner and will continue to be. I look at his percentage of breaking, and it's something ridiculous. I think it's the best in the world."

ON MURRAY

"I look at him as one of the favorites, but maybe not quite the same as the other guys. On a given day, if he plays well and gets the crowd support, he could very well have some destiny on his side.

"He's dealing with a lot more than the other guys, in terms of the pressure of the country and the media on every move and on everything he says. It's tough enough playing these guys, then you add all that. It's nothing that any other player has experienced. Maybe Becker, but he didn't have a major in Germany. Even in my generation with Tim [Henman], he talked to the press every day; it's like an ongoing thing in the back of his head. I hope Andy can shut that noise out and play his tennis.

"I do see him get agitated sometimes. Every now and again, you see him yelling at his box. He's an emotional guy, and that's what makes him tough -- he's in every point. But you'd like to see him recover a bit quicker and potentially chill, into something more positive. He's a little temperamental, which is fine. It's just that in this sport, you have to have a short memory. You play a bad point, you move on."

You can find Pete’s comments at the link below:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon11/columns/story?columnist=ubha_ravi&id=6671956