The Way Things Stand...

Neither WCR nor I saw the Federer-Youzhny match in its entirety, due to generally poor coverage, and also because the Del Potro-Nadal match had us glued and both were going on at the same time.

From what I've seen, Del Potro played an outstanding match for somebody finally coming to terms with this surface, and seems to be enjoying coming forward more and more. He played well throughout, came in plenty, and as a result took Nadal to two breakers and stole a set from him as well. Seeing him evolve on this surface has been great.

He still has a lot to learn about grass, and a lot of that will have to do with hitting even better volleys behind such an amazing serve, though he did it better than most expected, and he will need to stand farther inside the court. Too many times Nadal had the opportunity to come in and sting him with drop volleys, seeing Del Potro miles behind the baseline.

Despite these issues, Del Potro and his fans should be very happy with the way he played, and he looks set mentally to win the US Open.

Nadal is by far the best player in the tournament right now, and it's not really close. Despite Del Potro being on his game for most of the match, he retrieved as only he can, and came in plenty. His statistics in this match were astonishing considering the calibre of player he faced. It's clear. Nadal wakes up differently for Wimbledon now, perhaps even more focused than his beloved French. He's serving bombs and his cross-court backhand is at its best. Quite frankly, he is playing the best I've seen him play on grass since Wimbledon 2008.

So what can his opponents do? They can still beat him. But it will take someone really taking it to him aggressively, like Del Potro did, and more clinically, to defeat him. Considering the draw that lies before us now, it's hard to see who can do this. Murray is not playing consistently good tennis, even considering his sound beating of Gasquet. He has ups and downs, and it is a fact that he simply does not know how to play a naturally attacking game on his own steam (which means that he can do it to mix things up but, but it's not his game in general). Novak is playing well, but his tennis here has been no different from his clay game earlier this year, minus the sliding. He still relies too heavily on keeping the ball in play, and as well as he does it, it seems that he is becoming less and less attacking. It does seem to be the sort of tennis that troubles Nadal, but on grass, Nadal changes things. His forehand is much flatter and he approaches with gusto, and Djokovic will probably not be able to deal with that over five sets.

Tsonga is the only player left in the draw with the right approach to grass court tennis, but I highly doubt he can do it for three whole sets against a Nadal of this calibre.

Which brings us to Roger Federer. Off the ground, Roger has been flawless. From what I saw even of the Youzhny match, he was never in trouble, and knew it. Youzhny was playing out of his skin, but to do that on grass for three sets against Federer is a tall ask. Roger played well to come back, never really looking like he was beating beaten; simply delayed.

Now, Roger's baseline game is so good that he can beat anyone off the ground here, except Nadal. If he should reach a final against Nadal here, and tries to go toe to toe with him from the back, he will lose. And badly, because of the nature of the match-up which doesn't need to be rehashed here. As Del Potro showed, the only way to get close to Nadal is to really go after him, and despite doing most things correctly, it didn't happen for him. This means Roger needs to play as aggressively as Del Potro did, but needs to be even more clinical at net, and will need to spend a lot less time at the baseline than him as well, since while DP is not troubled by Nadal's high topspin forehand to his backhand, Roger cannot handle that in a best-of-five match.

Roger is not going to beat Nadal off the ground, so he will need to come in literally on 30-40% of all points to stand a chance. This isn't hard to do, but can Roger execute once at net? How many sitters will he miss? How many shoe-lace volleys can he put in play. How much will his wrist drop? Will he approach at the right times and on the right shots? Will he use the slice as an approach?

From what I've seen, Roger hasn't done enough of any of this so far at this tournament for me to be convinced that he can do it in his next match or after. Maybe he can, but right now, I haven't seen the signs. He came in a good deal in his last two sets against Youzhny, which is good, but still didn't look entirely authoritative. And it does make me wonder whether he is a hundred percent physically when he doesn't try things out, since it seems that the obvious thing to do at Wimbledon is come in during the early rounds. I have no doubt that Paul would have stressed on this, but for some reason Roger has not been able to follow through. I just hope the reason isn't physical.

All this does seem rather grim. And maybe even a bit premature. But it is important to cover all the bases and look at the overall picture. His next match is against Tsonga, who is on a roll, and who will steal the net from Roger a good deal. Roger might very well be able to defeat him by passing him from the back court. The smart thing to do, however, will be to take Tsonga out of his comfort zone and come in and take over the net at least on serve. A good mix is what will be needed against Tsonga, but if he gets through that, his potential semi final and final will need to be mostly about approaching well.

We are now in the second week of Wimbledon and this is where it all really starts. Rust should have been scraped off by now. Weapons and tools should have been sharpened. It is an old tennis saying that, "You can't win a major in the first week." So now, it's time to bring it.